Despite a relatively easy slate to begin the season, the Indiana Hoosiers boast a sub-.500 record after three home games. This week won’t provide an easy win either, as Indiana heads to Denton, Texas for its first true road test.
The Opponent: North Texas Mean Green
Despite their name, North Texas isn’t a program with a tradition of being particularly intimidating. As a matter of fact, they’ve been historically inept in recent years under the stewardship of Todd Dodge and Mike Canales, accruing a record of 7-37 since the beginning of 2007.
As a result of an absolutely dismal record, Dan McCarney was hired as the new Mean Green head football coach to attempt to lift the program back to relevance.
McCarney enters with a reputation for building successful defenses.
One need only look at North Texas’ defensive numbers to see why his presence was desired this offseason. The Mean Green have allowed an obscene 43.3 points per game, good for 116th in the nation. While much of that can be attributed to a rugged early schedule (Florida International, Houston and #2 Alabama) it’s obvious that this is a team that has plenty of room for growth on that side of the ball.
The offense has been lackluster as well this season and while much of that can be attributed to their early-season schedule, inexperience at quarterback is also partially to blame.
Sophomore Derek Thompson is beginning his first season as a starter at North Texas after attempting only 21 passes before this year.
Growing pains are not surprising in a quarterback’s first full year, but they have in this case limited what the Mean Green offense is capable of.
X-Factor: Lance Dunbar
Dunbar is one of the few bright spots for this North Texas team. While he hasn’t had an overwhelming amount of statistical success yet this season, he definitely proved last year that he is the Mean Green’s preeminent offensive weapon.
In 2010, he set a school record and ranked fourth in the nation with 1,885 all-purpose yards – running for 1,553 of those, good for eighth in the NCAA. With Derek Thompson’s youth, North Texas will likely need to run the ball in order to be successful and Dunbar is dangerous enough that they could be successful.
Co-defensive Coordinator, Mike Ekeler, said this week that Dunbar could be the most dangerous back IU faces this year. Coming from a Big Ten coach, that’s no small praise.
North Texas Statistics (3 games):
Total Offense: 253.3 ypg (159 passing, 94.3 rushing)
Scoring Offense: 13 ppg
Total Defense: 559 ypg (331.7 passing, 227.3 rushing)
Scoring Defense: 43.3 ppg
North Texas Individual Leaders:
Passing: Derek Thompson- 56.1% completion rate, 419 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Lance Dunbar- 53 carries, 121 yards, 1 TD
Brandin Byrd- 12 carries, 61 yards, 0 TDs
James Hamilton- 13 carries, 44 yards, 0 TDs
Receiving: Michael Outlaw- 11 catches, 134 yards, 0 TDs
Brelan Chancellor- 9 catches, 110 yards, 0 TDs
Lance Dunbar- 11 catches, 106 yards, 0 TDs
Hoosier Matchups
Indiana’s offense likely won’t see a better opportunity this season to score points than against a struggling Mean Green defense this weekend and Edward Wright-Baker will play a leading role.
Wright-Baker has provided a steady hand at the quarterback position, avoiding dangerous throws and throwing only one interception thus far. His play hasn’t been perfect though, as he’s overthrown multiple open receivers downfield and been a bit too hesitant at times. This week he will be expected to be more aggressive. Depending on how well he plays, this could lead to either bigger numbers or more mistakes.
His receiving corps will factor largely into the success of the passing game.
If Damarlo Belcher, Duwyce Wilson and Kofi Hughes play like they’re capable of playing, it’s unlikely North Texas will be able to answer the Hoosiers’ offensive firepower. Players like Ted Bolser from the tight end position and Shane Wynn from the slot receiver position will look to get involved as well.
Duwyce Wilson has emerged as a legitimate threat lined up across Damarlo Belcher.Duwyce Wilson has emerged as a legitimate threat lined up across Damarlo Belcher.
The Indiana ground game will be a point of interest this weekend after D’Angelo Roberts’ stellar performance against South Carolina State.
Roberts posted what was easily the most impressive rushing line of the year for the Hoosiers, gaining over 100 yards and averaging more than five yards per carry. Starter Matt Perez and Stephen Houston have yet to put up a performance similar to Roberts’ last week and will presumably have a chance to respond against North Texas.
If they don’t answer the bell, or if Roberts puts forth a similar performance, the balance of power in the backfield could shift.
X-Factor: Hoosier Defense
Indiana’s key to Saturday’s game coincides with North Texas’ – the Mean Green will likely try to run Lance Dunbar and the Hoosiers will do their best to stop him.
The Hoosier defensive effort against South Carolina State was less than inspiring, as they allowed the Bulldogs to double their average total offensive output and triple their yardage through the air. To make matters worse, the Bulldogs missed several opportunities to gain even more yardage through the air, as they had receivers drop on-target passes and their quarterback missed several open receivers.
If Indiana makes that brand of defense a habit this season, they won’t win many football games. They need improvement, and their first opportunity will come against North Texas.
Hoosier Statistics (3 games)-
Total Offense: 417 ypg (247.7 passing, 169.3 rushing)
Scoring Offense: 29.7 ppg
Total Defense: 373.3 ypg (195.7 passing, 177.7 rushing)
Scoring Defense: 27.3 ppg
Hoosier Individual Leaders:
Passing: Edward Wright-Baker- 64% completion rate, 716 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT
Rushing: D’Angelo Roberts- 30 carries, 150 yards, 1 TD
Matt Perez- 41 carries, 130 yards, 4 TDs
Edward Wright-Baker- 35 carries, 101 yards, 0 TDs
Receiving: Damarlo Belcher- 14 catches, 190 yards, 1 TD
Duwyce Wilson- 11 catches, 161 yards, 2 TDs
Kofi Hughes- 11 catches, 130 yards, 1 TD
Prediction- 35-21 Indiana
North Texas will try to establish Dunbar early in the game, and will succeed to a degree, but the Hoosier offense will put up points and give the Mean Green more than they can handle, turning in one of their most efficient performances of the young season.
