After a disheartening loss last weekend to the North Texas Mean Green, the Indiana Hoosiers (1-3) return to Bloomington this weekend to begin conference play at home. Their first opponent will be a formidable one.

The Opponent: Penn State Nittany Lions (3-1)

When one thinks Penn State, the mind immediately jumps to two things – physicality and Joe Paterno. Paterno is the program patriarch and, as today’s longest tenured (by far) college coach, is always worth mentioning. The other Nittany Lion hallmark will likely be on display as well, as Penn State boasts an imposing offensive line and a solid ground game led by sophomore back Silas Redd. Paterno has made clear early in the season that he’s unhappy with how the Lions are performing on the ground so far, so it’s fair to assume that Penn State will make a point of running the ball.

The Nittany Lion passing attack has been less than spectacular this season, as sophomore Rob Bolden and junior Matt McGloin have split time to somewhat mixed results. Penn State averages just below 210 yards passing through the air and has thrown only one more touchdown than interception on the year. Both Bolden and McGloin are likely to see time on Saturday, and to this point McGloin has been the more effective of the two.

While PSU’s offense has struggled at times this year, their defense has had no such troubles. They rank top-10 nationally in scoring defense, and have allowed double-digit points only once this season. They boast a stout defensive line and their usual solid crop of linebackers. They seldom need to send extra pressure, as their defensive line gets consistent pressure, and their secondary does a great job of preventing big plays.

X-Factor: Derek Moye

The senior receiver has been a favorite target of both Bolden and McGloin in the season’s early going, leading the Nittany Lions in catches, yards and touchdowns. At 6’5, 210 lbs, Moye is a physical specimen at wide receiver and has shown his fair share of speed as well, breaking at least one play of at least 20 yards in every game this season. Penn State wants a balanced offensive game plan, and much of that will center on getting Moye open. If he doesn’t have a productive day, the other, less skilled Nittany Lion receivers will need to be called upon and the offense will move that much closer to being one-dimensional. The Hoosiers have struggled mightily at defending against the pass this season though, and if Penn State establishes Derek Moye and the aerial attack they could move the ball very effectively.

Penn State Statistics (4 games):

Total Offense: 346.5 ypg (209.5 passing, 137 rushing)

Scoring Offense: 25 ppg

Total Defense: 249 ypg (148.2 passing, 100.8 rushing)

Scoring Defense: 12.5 ppg

Penn State Individual Leaders:

Passing:    Rob Bolden- 46.5% completion rate, 388 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs

Matt McGloin- 63% completion rate, 421 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs

Rushing:    Silas Redd- 62 rushes, 302 yards, 4 TDs

Brandon Beachum- 21 rushes, 81 yards, 0 TDs

Michael Zordich- 7 rushes, 17 yards, 2 TDs

Receiving: Derek Moye- 20 catches, 285 yards, 2 TDs

Justin Brown- 13 catches, 142 yards, 0 TDs

Devon Smith- 5 catches, 115 yards, 1 TD

Hoosier Matchups

IU enters this week’s contest somewhat unsettled at the quarterback position. Kevin Wilson posited during the week that Ed Wright-Baker would likely open Saturday’s game as the starter, but who finishes the game could be subject to change, especially considering how effectively Dusty Kiel finished the game against North Texas in relief of Wright-Baker. Wilson was conservative in his praises of both quarterbacks, saying that both have plenty to improve upon. Whoever plays this week for the Hoosiers should be aided by the return of both Damarlo Belcher and Duwyce Wilson from minor injuries that kept them out of last week’s game.

Even with both receivers likely back in the lineup, Indiana will need some additional production from their running backs. D’Angelo Roberts saw his first career start last week, but couldn’t do much with the opportunity, as he totaled only 37 yards on 11 carries for 3.4 yards-per-carry. However, Roberts still looked like the best option out of the backfield, as Stephen Houston and Matt Perez combined for only nine carries for 29 yards. The Hoosier running game will likely sink or swim with Roberts, so getting him established early will be important.

X-Factor: Hoosier Defense

I said it in this space last week and I’ll say it again – IU’s defense needs improvement. Instead of shoring up the defense after a lackluster effort against South Carolina State, they turned in an even poorer one against North Texas. Lance Dunbar (last week’s X-Factor) ran wild over the Hoosiers and was a major reason that the Mean Green took such a commanding halftime lead. Indiana cannot afford another such defensive performance this week against Penn State, and if they don’t make vast improvements the Hoosiers have no chance in this game. IU will be a prohibitive underdog, and if this team wants a shot at a victory, the defense will have to play better than it has all season.

Hoosier Statistics (4 games):

Total Offense: 413.8 ypg (274.2 passing, 139.5)

Scoring Offense: 27.5 ppg

Total Defense: 386.8 ypg (197 passing, 189.8 rushing)

Scoring Defense: 26.5 ppg

Hoosier Individual Leaders:

Passing:    Ed Wright-Baker- 62% completion rate, 925 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs

Dusty Kiel- 61.1% completion rate, 172 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs

Rushing:    D’Angelo Roberts- 41 rushes, 187 yards, 1 TD

Matt Perez- 43 rushes, 132 yards, 4 TDs

Stephen Houston- 22 rushes, 91 yards, 1 TD

Ed Wright-Baker- 41 rushes, 88 yards, 0 TDs

Receiving: Damarlo Belcher- 14 catches, 190 yards, 1 TD

Kofi Hughes- 13 catches, 204 yards, 2 TDs

Dre Muhammad- 13 catches, 140 yards, 0 TDs

Duwyce Wilson, 12 catches, 161 yards, 2 TDs

Prediction: 27-14 Penn State

The Nittany Lions aren’t overly talented and some holes, but they’re too tough and too well coached to let an inferior Hoosier squad get the better of them. Indiana should get up for this game (something they’ve had trouble doing the past two weeks) and keep it close early, but the Penn State defense will prove to be too much and the offense will make enough plays to win.