Despite giving valiant efforts in their first two B1G games of the season, the Indiana Hoosiers came up empty in contests against Penn State and Illinois. Both squads gave Indiana a reasonably rude welcome to conference play, and this week’s game against Wisconsin isn’t likely to be much different. If anything, the Badgers are looking to give Kevin Wilson the mother of rude awakenings.
The Opponent- #4 Wisconsin Badgers (5-0, 1-0)
As stated above, Indiana’s first two conference foes were formidable in their own right. The Nittany Lions and the Illini have combined for only one loss between them and both are ranked and/or receiving votes as of this week. Wisconsin though, is quite simply a different animal. Two weeks ago, the Badgers hosted and throttled then-8th ranked Nebraska at Camp Randall Stadium and grabbed the attention nation’s attention in the process. Wisconsin realizes that there’s a lot of football left to be played this season, but appears at this point to be clearly the best team in the conference, if not one of the best in the country.
The Badgers are equally dangerous on both sides of the ball, as senior quarterback Russell Wilson – a transfer from North Carolina State – has taken the reigns seamlessly from the departed Scott Tolzein and emerged as one of the top quarterbacks in college football. If anything, Wisconsin’s offense has become even more dangerous, and it all begins with the threat that Wilson provides both running and throwing the ball.
Russell Wilson is by no means a one-man band however, as Montee Ball and James White have replaced John Clay as a two-headed monster out of the Badger backfield. Ball is a bruising runner between the tackles while White is speedier and more capable of breaking long touchdown runs. They both run behind a mammoth offensive line, which features players an average height of 6’5” and 322 pounds. That line opens gaping holes for whoever may be running behind it and gives Wilson all the time he needs to find dynamic receivers like Nick Toon downfield.
The Badger defense isn’t too far behind the offense in defining this team’s identity. They are stout at the point of attack and in the linebacking corps, allowing slightly more than 10 points per game this season. They haven’t been tested often this season, but the Cornhuskers were supposed to test them last weekend and were steamrolled when they couldn’t move the ball through the air. Overall, Wisconsin is almost certainly the best team the Hoosiers will play this year and appear to have very few, if any, weaknesses.
X-Factor- Bret Bielema
Wisconsin’s head football coach is indeed the X-Factor in this game, and while he may appear an unconventional choice, there’s a very good reason for it. If there is one game all year that a fan could feel safe betting his or her life on, it would be this one. Anything can happen on the football field, but short of a miracle it’s hard to see Indiana pulling out a victory. Bielema’s Badgers ran up an embarrassing 83-20 final score last season up at Camp Randall, and the apparent gap between the two teams has only grown. If the Hoosiers keep the score semi-respectable it will most likely be a result of Bielema calling off the dogs at the half or early in the 3rd quarter.
Wisconsin Statistics (5 games)-
Total Offense: 523 ypg (280.4 passing, 242.6 rushing)
Scoring Offense: 48.4 ppg
Total Defense: 264.2 ypg (161 passing, 103.2 rushing)
Scoring Defense: 10.2 ppg
Wisconsin Individual Leaders-
Passing: Russell Wilson- 74.8% completion rate, 1391 yards, 13 TDs, 1 INT
Rushing: Montee Ball- 93 carries, 511 yards, 13 TDs
James White- 56 carries, 329 yards, 3 TDs
Russell Wilson- 22 carries, 140 yards, 2 TDs
Receiving: Nick Toon- 25 catches, 447 yards, 6 TDs
Jar Abbrederis- 20 catches, 328 yards, 2 TDs
Jacob Pedersen- 14 catches, 224 yards, 4 TDs
Hoosier Statistics (6 games)-
Total Offense: 368.8 ypg (250 passing, 118.8 rushing)
Scoring Offense: 23.3 ppg
Total Defense: 421.5 ypg (211.5 passing, 210 rushing)
Scoring Defense: 27.2 ppg
Hoosier Matchups-
There’s no real way to tiptoe around the fact that almost every matchup in this game favors Wisconsin pretty handily. Due to an ankle injury to Dusty Kiel, Indiana will likely start Ed Wright-Baker this week after an ankle injury of his own held him out of the past two games. That makes this week Wright-Baker’s first B1G start, a milestone that would likely be more enjoyable if it weren’t coming against a dominant Badger defense. It’s likely that Tre Roberson will also see some time at quarterback following a strong performance last weekend against Illinois, and he too will likely experience a baptism by fire.
The Hoosier offensive line hasn’t seen much continuity or success thus far this season, which has hurt both pass protection and the running game. D’Angelo Roberts will likely be back in action after missing the past two games with a concussion sustained against North Texas, and Stephen Houston will likely see his third straight start following two solid performances. Indiana will try to come out and show they mean business by attempting to establish a ground game, so whether or not they succeed, Houston and Roberts will probably get a decent workload early.
Indiana receivers will need to step up as well in order to give Wright-Baker and/or Roberson a chance against the Wisconsin defense. Damarlo Belcher in particular has been unable to establish himself early on, and a big game from him would be a very positive sign as the season moves forward.
As for the defense, it’ll have to show a lot more than it has in the first half of the season. Again, nothing against the defense or any of the Hoosiers’ first few opponents but the Badgers simply appear to be on a different level than anyone IU has played or will play this year. Indiana will need to play with superhuman resolve, poise and concentration in order to hold its own against Wisconsin’s explosive offense.
X-Factor- Special Teams
That is indeed a near-total cop-out, but special teams are the only area the Hoosiers could conceivably have an edge. Shane Wynn looked solid as a returner last week and Mitch Ewald is maybe the best kicker in the conference. If Wynn takes every kick after a Badger score to the house, IU could win this game (tongue firmly in cheek). In the interest of full disclosure, I considered listing “Uniform Switch” as an X-Factor, as in the Wisconsin football team donning Indiana’s uniforms to win the game for the Hoosiers. Putting this bluntly, IU would stand little chance at home against the Badgers and the game is to be played in one of the most hostile road environments in the nation after Wisconsin had a week off to rest up and prepare.
Hoosier Individual Leaders-
Passing: Ed Wright-Baker- 62% completion rate, 925 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs
Dusty Kiel- 47.6% completion rate, 427 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Tre Roberson- 64.7% completion rate, 148 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT
Rushing: Stephen Houston- 54 carries, 219 yards, 1 TD
D’Angelo Roberts- 41 carries, 187 yards, 1 TD
Matt Perez- 49 carries, 148 yards, 4 TDs
Receiving: Damarlo Belcher- 23 catches, 265 yards, 1 TD
Dre Muhammad- 16 catches, 161 yards, 0 TDs
Kofi Hughes- 15 catches, 239 yards, 2 TDs
Duwyce Wilson- 15 catches, 176 yards, 2 TDs
Prediction: 68-17 Wisconsin
Bret Bielema is notorious for running up the score, and though he pulls his starters after taking a 45-7 halftime lead, the Indiana defense can’t slow the backups either. Wisconsin cruises, and yes, they cover the 40-point spread.
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