The Indiana Hoosiers shook off the some cobwebs last week against Penn State and despite a 16-10 loss, turned in their most impressive performance of the year in their B1G opener. They’ll certainly face another challenge this week as Illinois visits the REAL Memorial Stadium.

The Opponent: #19/#16 Illinois Fighting Illini (5-0)-

Ron Zook has had his share of ups and downs since taking the reigns as the Illini coach, but this season’s team looks like his best squad since Illinois’ 2007-2008 Rose Bowl berth. Zook has always had a reputation as more of a recruiter than a competent game coach, but that hasn’t seemed to matter early in the season. Thanks in part to playing all their games at home, Illini have racked up five wins in as many tries, including a victory over #22/#24 Arizona State. The season is still young, but in a relatively weak Leaders division (aside from Wisconsin), Illinois may be one of the best teams.

The Illini offense has been more than effective at the season’s outset, and that has a lot to do with sophomore quarterback, Nathan Scheelhaase. Scheelhaase (in addition to having an incredibly difficult name to spell) has made quite a leap as a field general between his first and second years, as has been noted by most of the Indiana coaching staff. His freshman campaign was respectable, but he’s been more than 10% more accurate on his passes this season and has shown a stronger arm than he did last year. Factor in the fact that he’s Illinois’ second leading rusher, and it’s safe to say that the Illini offense runs through Scheelhaase.

The running back position also has a decent amount of talent, as three backs have received a significant workload early this season. Jacob Ford is officially listed as the starter and has more carries than any other member of the backfield, but his two backups have proven thus far to be far more dangerous. Troy Pollard is a diminutive change-of-pace back who leads the team in rushing yards and boasts a 9.6 yards-per-carry average. Donovonn Young has also been very effective and while only a freshman, he’s tied for the team lead in rushing touchdowns (4) and has shown the capability to take the starting job on a full-time basis once Ford and Pollard graduate.

Finally, Illinois has been a very solid defensive team, despite losing defensive tackle Corey Liuget to the NFL. They held the explosive Arizona State offense to only 14 points and were looking like one of the better defenses in the conference before a meltdown last week against Northwestern. Jonathon Brown – a starting linebacker and anchor of the defense – will miss this week’s game due to suspension, which should help the Hoosier offense.

X-Factor- A.J Jenkins

Jenkins is Scheelhaase’s favorite and most talented weapon by a fairly wide margin. He has literally four times as many catches as the next Illini receiver and has caught five of his team’s eight touchdowns through the air. Indiana had trouble last week with Penn State’s Derek Moye and not only is Jenkins better than Moye, he may be the best receiver in the B1G. If the Hoosiers don’t contain Jenkins, Illinois’ offense could have an absolute field day on Saturday. Shutting down Jenkins wouldn’t guarantee a victory, but it would make the Illini offense infinitely more defensible and that’s probably Indiana’s best shot.

Illinois Statistics (5 games)-

Total Offense: 433.6 ypg (223.8 passing, 209.8 rushing)

Scoring Offense: 33.4 ppg

Total Defense: 295.6 ypg (216.6 passing, 79 rushing)

Scoring Defense: 17.4 ppg

Illinois Individual Leaders-

Passing:     Nathan Scheelhaase- 69.4% completion rate, 1028 yards, 7 TDs, 3 INTs

Rushing:    Troy Pollard- 28 carries, 269 yards, 1 TD

Nathan Scheelhaase- 76 carries, 259 yards, 3 TDs

Donovonn Young- 35 carries, 241 yards, 4 TDs

Receiving: AJ Jenkins- 40 catches, 633 yards, 5 TDs

Darius Millines- 10 catches, 174 yards, 1 TD

Spencer Harris- 10 catches, 99 yards, 0 TDs

Hoosier Matchups-

IU probably has more questions than answers when one looks at their roster and probable starters. If Kevin Wilson has proven anything this year, it’s that he’s not afraid to mix up his starting lineup on both sides of the ball for the sake of competition. That will be evident this week when Wilson settles on either Ed Wright-Baker or Dusty Kiel as his starting quarterback. I’m not totally sure that it matters who starts, as neither appears to have much of an edge, but the word from the Hoosier camp is that Kiel will likely get the start if Wright-Baker isn’t physically able to practice well. Whichever quarterback starts, he’ll need to work fast, as the offensive line has struggled mightily in pass protection and the Illinois defense has done a good job this year of getting to the quarterback.

Indiana’s ground game is also a question mark, as Stephen Houston, D’Angelo Roberts and Matt Perez have all gotten nearly equal time in the Hoosier backfield. For what it’s worth, Roberts and Houston have looked the best so far this year, but all three have already started at least once and there’s really no way to tell definitively who will start this week. If Roberts is healthy, he’ll probably start, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Houston or Perez had a good week of practice and get the starting nod. Regardless, the Hoosiers have had trouble establishing a ground presence and the going doesn’t get any easier this week against an Illini defense that’s given up fewer than 80 rushing yards per game.

As for the defense, it allowed only 16 points last week against Penn State and made a couple of stands that it hadn’t previously appeared capable of making. Penn State though doesn’t have anyone resembling Scheelhaase, and the Illinois offense has looked very impressive in the early going. As detailed above, it has ample ability to move the ball both through the air and on the ground. Simply put, the defense will have its hands full. If it comes up big again this week, it may need to be taken a little more seriously.

X-Factor- Memorial Stadium

This isn’t me pandering to the fan base or downgrading the Indiana team, rather it’s a legitimate observation about the Illini. They haven’t played on the road yet this year and have only won once at Indiana since 2003. On paper, this looks like a clear-cut Illinois win, but the Hoosiers showed some gumption last week and have played pretty well at Memorial Stadium this season. Indiana will need to get a little lucky and have some things to go right to win this game and having a home field advantage is a huge first step.

Hoosier Statistics (5 games)-

Total Offense: 382.2 ypg (256.2 passing, 126 rushing)

Scoring Offense: 24 ppg

Total Defense: 402.2 ypg (211.8 passing, 190.4)

Scoring Defense: 24.4 ppg

Hoosier Individual Leaders-

Passing:     Ed Wright-Baker- 62% completion rate, 925 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs

Dusty Kiel- 52% completion rate, 356 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Rushing:    D’Angelo Roberts- 41 carries, 187 yards, 1 TD

Stephen Houston- 40 carries, 151 yards, 1 TD

Matt Perez- 45 carries, 136 yards, 4 TDs

Receiving: Damarlo Belcher- 20 catches, 250 yards, 1 TD

Kofi Hughes- 14 catches, 212 yards, 2 TDs

Dre Muhammad- 14 catches, 145 yards, 0 TDs

Duwyce Wilson- 12 catches, 161 yards, 2 TDs

Prediction- 24-14 Illinois

Indiana hangs tough through the first half, but Scheelhaase and Jenkins get the offense going in the second half and the Hoosier offense can’t answer the bell. They have chances to make it a game late, but aren’t able to capitalize on their opportunities and can’t avoid costly mistakes. Illinois escapes with a close win.