Photo Courtesy of Kenpom.com
Over the last few years, advanced statistics in college basketball have become quite popular. A very popular advanced statistical website is http://kenpom.com. The advanced statistics give avid college basketball fans the ability to dive deeper into their favorite teams, and get a better outlook on how their team is performing.
In this article, I will analyze some of the most popular advanced statistics for Indiana and Kentucky, and what exactly the stats mean.
Offensive Efficiency
Indiana: 113.6 (13th in the nation)
Kentucky: 117.1 (3rd in the nation)
Raw Offensive efficiency on Kempom.com is the amount of points a team scores per 100 offensive possessions. However, Ken Pomeroy adjusts the efficiency based on the quality of opposing defenses, where the game is played, and when the game was played, with the most recent games getting the most weight.
The offensive efficiency stat is far more effective than the regular points per game stat. A team cannot control how many possessions they will have during a specific game, based on the tempo their opponents play, along with their own style. The offensive efficiency stat gives us an in depth view of how many points a team is scoring per possession, than per an entire game.
In the Indiana vs. Kentucky matchup, obviously both teams are very efficient on the offensive end. One would expect a very offensive-minded game looking at this stat, but you also have to look at the teams’ defensive efficiencies, which I will highlight next.
Defensive Efficiency
Indiana: 92.2 (41st in the nation)
Kentucky: 83.4 (4th in the nation)
Defensive efficiency correlates with offensive efficiency, only it is the amount of points a team gives up per 100 possessions, and then adjusted with the same factors offensive efficiency is adjusted for.
Indiana and Kentucky both are very efficient on defense as well, but Kentucky has the edge in that aspect as well. Due to the high offensive and defensive efficiencies for both teams, it will be interesting to see if the teams’ defensive or offensive efforts prove to be stronger.
Adjusted Tempo
Indiana: 69.3 (79th in the nation)
Kentucky: 69.1 (86th in the nation)
The average tempo for a team is calculated as their total possessions divided by total minutes. The amount of possessions a team gets is calculated as follows: [team’s attempted field goals – offensive rebounds + turnovers + (.475 X free throws attempted)]. The equation may seem confusing, but it actually isn’t too bad once you analyze it.
Once the average tempo is calculated for a team, the value is then adjusted based upon their schedule, taking into account the pace of each opponent and when the game was played.
Kentucky and Indiana are almost identical in terms of tempo on paper. Neither plays at an extreme pace, but both teams will look to push the ball, and will take an open shot in transition if it presents itself.
Effective Field Goal Percentage
Indiana: 58% (4th in the nation)
Kentucky: 53.7% (34th in the nation)
While looking at a team’s field goal percentage can give you a solid indication of how well they shoot, effective field goal percentage can give you an even better outlook.
Effective field goal percentage weights a 3-point shot a little more, and can be calculated as follows: Field Goals Made + (.5 * 3-Pointers Made)/Field Goals Attempted.
Both the Hoosiers and Wildcats shoot the ball very effectively. Indiana has players like Jordan Hulls and Math Roth who hit the 3-point shot at a high percentage, so it helps out that 3-pointers are weighted when calculating effective field goal percentage.
Whether or not either or both of these teams will be able to shoot this effectively Saturday will be something to watch for.
Turnover Percentage
Indiana: 18.2% (52nd in the nation)
Kentucky: 17.4% (33rd in the nation)
A team’s turnover percentage is easily calculated by taking the number of turnovers a team has and dividing it by their total number of possessions.
Indiana turns the ball over just a bit more than Kentucky, but both teams take care of the basketball better than the average team in college basketball (The average percentage in college basketball right now is 21.3 %). To effectively estimate how the turnovers will play out in this game, we will have to take a look at how often these teams are able to make their opponents turn the ball over.
Opponents’ Turnover Percentage
Indiana: 26.9% (11th in the nation)
Kentucky: 21.6% (152nd in the nation)
The opponent’s turnover percentage is how often these two teams are able to make the opposing team turn the ball over. It is calculated the same way, as it takes the opponent’s turnovers divided by their total number of possessions.
While Kentucky had the slight edge on offense in their turnover percentage, Indiana holds a sizeable margin in how often they are able to make their opponents turn the ball over. Both teams are able to take care of the basketball effectively, but the Hoosiers have been jumping on their opponents and forcing them to turn the ball over a little more than once every four possessions.
Obviously Kentucky is a higher caliber team than the Hoosiers have faced all season, but they are young and still have the capability of getting loose with the ball and turning it over at a high rate.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage
Indiana: 34.1% (127th in the nation)
Kentucky: 37.2% (52nd in the nation)
The offensive rebounding percentage is a team’s percentage of how many of their rebounds they grab are on the offensive end. It can be calculated as follows: Offensive Rebounds / Total Rebounds.
Kentucky is able to grab a higher percentage of offensive rebounds than the Hoosiers. Offensive rebounding will be crucial for either team, along with their ability to take advantage of second-chance opportunities.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage Allowed
Indiana: 34.5% (226th in the nation)
Kentucky: 30.4% (106th in the nation)
The offensive rebound percentage allowed statistic is very similar to that stat above, except it is the percentage of their opponent’s offensive rebounds in relation to their overall rebounds.
Both teams struggle a bit in terms of allowing offensive rebounds, but Indiana struggles mightily. Keeping Kentucky off the boards and limiting their second-chance opportunities is going to be crucial if they want a shot at knocking off the best team in the nation.
Free Throws Attempted in Relation to Field Goals Attempted
Indiana: 50.2 (21st in the nation)
Kentucky: 40.4 (115th in the nation)
This stat shows a team’s ability to get to the free throw line. It shows how often a team is able to get to the line relative to its ability to attempt a shot.
Indiana’s ability to get to the line this year has to be looked at as one of the major reasons this team looks to be vastly improved. Last season, Indiana was 196th in the nation in their ability to get to the line, whereas they are 25th in the nation heading into the Kentucky game.
If the Hoosiers can get Kentucky in foul trouble and get easy points at the free throw line, they will give themselves a chance at knocking off Kentucky.
Other Stats
Some other stats I will leave you with will be in bulk, and will be in a table below. The stats are 3-point percentage, 2-point percentage, free throw percentage, block percentage, steal percentage, 3-pointers attempted/field goals attempted, assists/field goals made, and point distribution.
3-point, 2-point, and free throw percentage are self-explanatory.
Block percentage can be calculated as follows: Blocks / Opponent’s 2-point field goals attempted.
Steal percentage can be calculated as follows: Steals / Defensive possessions.
3-pointers attempted/field goals attempted shows a team’s a percentage of how many of their attempted field goals are 3-pointers.
Assists/Field goals made shows the percentage of possessions with a made basket also had an assist.
The point distributions show the percentage of a team’s points on 2-pointers, 3-pointers, and free throws.
| Indiana | Kentucky | |
| 3P% | 44% (8th in the nation) | 37.4% (76th in the nation) |
| 2P% | 55.2% (11th in the nation) | 52.9% (46th in the nation) |
| FT% | 74% (48th in the nation) | 68.5% (161st in the nation) |
| Block% | 10.5% (105th in the nation) | 25.1% (1st in the nation) |
| Steal% | 14.2% (11th in the nation) | 11.5% (72nd in the nation) |
| 3PA/FGA | 26.1% (304th in the nation) | 25.2% (312th in the nation) |
| A/FGM | 55.6% (114th in the nation | 51.5% (199th in the nation) |
|
Point Distribution |
||
| 3-Pointers | 22.5% (264th in the nation) | 20.9% (293rd in the nation) |
| 2-Pointers | 53.2% (143rd in the nation) | 58.6% (45th in the nation) |
| Free Throw | 24.3% (56th in the nation) | 20.5% (178th in the nation) |
While these stats are nowhere near the end-all be-all, it can help give you a little more insight on the highly anticipated matchup between the Indiana Hoosiers and the Kentucky Wildcats.
If any of these stats confuse you, or you want a little more information on a certain statistic, feel free to leave a comment in the comment section, or tweet me @tonyadragna.
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