Indiana vs. Kentucky: Down the stretch

Looking back at when Indiana faced off against Kentucky in December, the image of Christian Watford nailing a three-point jumper from what is now called “the Wat spot” is vivid in our minds. What many may forget is that from the end of the first half to about halfway through the second half, Indiana had complete control of the game.  After a Will Sheehey jumper with 9:05 remaining in the game, the Hoosiers had a 10-point lead. Then, the wheels began to fall off.

Although there are many important keys for Indiana to beat Kentucky for the second time this season, the Hoosiers’ execution down the stretch may be the most important.  Yes, the likelihood of Indiana carrying a 10-point lead with just nine minutes remaining probably will not happen again, but there is a bigger picture here.  Indiana has to execute down the stretch, because they were one Watford miss away from blowing a double-digit lead because of poor execution in the latter part of the game.

Let’s take a look at the play-by-play of the last nine minutes of the game and see what went wrong for the Hoosiers.

9:05        53-63    Will Sheehey made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Christian Watford.

8:46        Darius Miller made Layup.            55-63

8:30        55-63    Will Sheehey missed Jumper.

8:28        Darius Miller Defensive Rebound.            55-63

8:13        55-63    Foul on Daniel Moore

8:13        Doron Lamb made Free Throw. 56-63

8:13        Doron Lamb made Free Throw. 57-63

7:58        57-63    Christian Watford missed Jumper.

7:56        57-63    Cody Zeller Offensive Rebound.

7:52        57-66    Jordan Hulls made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Cody Zeller.

7:30        Marquis Teague made Layup.    59-66

7:01        59-66    Victor Oladipo missed Jumper.

7:00        Terrence Jones Defensive Rebound.      59-66

6:29        59-66    Foul on Jordan Hulls

6:29        Official TV Timeout.

6:29        Doron Lamb missed Free Throw.              59-66

6:29        59-66    Verdell Jones III Defensive Rebound.

6:03        59-66    Jordan Hulls missed Three Point Jumper.

6:00        59-66    Cody Zeller Offensive Rebound.

5:56        59-66    Verdell Jones III missed Jumper.

5:53        Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Defensive Rebound.         59-66

5:27        Doron Lamb made Layup. Assisted by Marquis Teague. 61-66

5:01        61-66    Will Sheehey missed Jumper.

4:55        61-66    Indiana Offensive Rebound.

4:53        61-66    Verdell Jones III missed Jumper.

4:51        61-66    Verdell Jones III Offensive Rebound.

4:48        61-66    Jordan Hulls missed Three Point Jumper.

4:44        61-66    Will Sheehey Offensive Rebound.

4:38        61-66    Cody Zeller Turnover.

4:38        Anthony Davis Steal.      61-66

4:35        61-66    Foul on Verdell Jones III

4:35        Marquis Teague made Free Throw.         62-66

4:35        Marquis Teague made Free Throw.         63-66

4:20        63-66    Will Sheehey missed Jumper.

4:18        Kentucky Defensive Rebound.  63-66

4:05        Michael Kidd-Gilchrist made Layup. Assisted by Darius Miller.     65-66

3:43        65-66    Christian Watford missed Jumper.

3:40        Anthony Davis Defensive Rebound.        65-66

3:25        Darius Miller missed Three Point Jumper.             65-66

3:22        65-66    Victor Oladipo Defensive Rebound.

3:14        Indiana Full Timeout.

3:06        65-68    Christian Watford made Layup.

2:59        Kentucky Full Timeout.

2:41        Marquis Teague made Layup.    67-68

2:18        67-68    Christian Watford missed Jumper.

2:18        67-68    Verdell Jones III Offensive Rebound.

2:18        67-68    Verdell Jones III Turnover.

2:15        Official TV Timeout.

2:01        Darius Miller made Dunk.  69-68

1:43        Foul on Darius Miller       69-68

1:17        69-68    Victor Oladipo missed Layup.

1:17        Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Block.       69-68

1:17        Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Defensive Rebound.         69-68

1:16        Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Turnover.               69-68

1:16        Indiana Full Timeout.

1:03        69-70    Christian Watford made Layup.

0:48        Marquis Teague made Layup.    71-70

0:32        71-70    Christian Watford missed Jumper.

0:29        Anthony Davis Defensive Rebound.        71-70

0:20        71-70    Foul on Cody Zeller

0:20        Anthony Davis missed Free Throw.          71-70

0:20        71-70    Victor Oladipo Defensive Rebound.

0:14        Indiana Full Timeout.

0:08        71-70    Victor Oladipo Turnover.

0:08        Doron Lamb Steal.           71-70

0:06        71-70    Foul on Victor Oladipo

0:06        Doron Lamb missed Free Throw.              71-70

0:06        Indiana Full Timeout.

0:06        Doron Lamb made Free Throw. 72-70

0:01        72-73    Christian Watford made Three Point Jumper. Assisted by Verdell Jones III.

0:00        End Game

To watch the final 9 minutes, I will attach a YouTube video of the entire IU-Kentucky game from December at the end of this post.

By my calculations, from 9:05 to 3:06, Indiana was a whopping one for 11 from the floor.  From the 9:05 mark to the end of the game, the Hoosiers shot four for 17 from the floor, good for 23.5 percent. Before the 9:05 mark, Indiana was shooting 21 for 41 from the floor, which equates to 51 percent.

From the 4:38 mark to the end of the game, Indiana turned the ball over three times.  Although that is not a glaring statistic, Indiana has to limit their turnovers down the stretch.  In fact, Victor Oladipo’s turnover with eight seconds left would probably be talked about a lot more if Watford had not connected on his buzzer-beating three-pointer.

Where Indiana really went wrong was their inability to feed Cody Zeller the basketball.  During the final minutes of the game, Dick Vitale mentions in his broadcast multiple times how Indiana was not feeding the ball into Zeller, even when he had position in the post.  It was especially alarming the Hoosiers did not feed Zeller the ball because he had Anthony Davis guarding him with four fouls.

On one of Indiana’s four baskets down the stretch, the Hoosiers ran an out of bounds play to get Zeller the ball in the post.  Kentucky’s defense collapsed, which allowed Zeller to find an open Christian Watford on the wing.  As Kentucky’s defense scrambled to regain their positions, Watford found an open lane and had an easy drive for a layup.  It is absolutely vital for Indiana to feed Zeller as often as they can as the game winds down.

Indiana’s last struggle down the stretch was on the defensive end.  From the 9:05 mark to the end of the game, Kentucky was able to connect on six layups, all of which came from perimeter players.  The Hoosiers mightily struggled to guard dribble penetration, especially Jordan Hulls.  Indiana has to find a way to keep Kentucky’s guards out of the paint without leaving shooters wide open.  Remy Abell might be one of the most important pieces for Indiana to contain the Wildcat’s penetration.

At the end of the day, this will probably be a different game, and both teams have progressed quite a bit since the last game in December.  Regardless, Indiana has to capitalize down the stretch for a chance to win.  Look no farther than the Virginia Commonwealth game to see Indiana’s importance of execution as the time begins to dwindle.

If the Hoosiers outplay the Wildcats in the final quarter of the game, they will give themselves a chance when the game is on the line.  And who knows, maybe this team will see a little more magic in this unpredictable season.