Photo courtesy of IU Athletics:
Former Indiana basketball coach Dan Dakich recently made a bold comment. Dakich, who knows more about IU basketball than most, won’t regard it as an upset if the Hoosiers (8-0) knock off the No. 1 ranked Kentucky Wildcats (8-0) today at Assembly Hall.
While both teams may be undefeated, each has taken a different route to getting there. From a talent standpoint, Kentucky is undisputedly superior. They made a top ranked Kansas team look foolish, and outdueled a more experienced, just as talented North Carolina team last week at home.
While coasting through a relatively soft schedule, the Hoosiers have marquee wins over Butler and on the road against a tough North Carolina State team.
Although not facing the difficult slate Kentucky has, the Hoosiers will not enter this game bereft to the daunting challenge the comes with the No. 1 Wildcats – the raucous crowd, the ESPN camera’s, John Calipari and the MONstars, Dan Shulman and Dicky V screaming in the booth.
The national spotlight.
Hoosier nation has been waiting for a game of this magnitude since Tom Crean's arrival. He is well aware.
Kentucky has been bumped up to a six-point favorite, that’s just two possessions. Let’s look at what IU needs to do to win straight up.
Player’s to watch:
Kentucky | Doron Lamb
This kid can flat out light it up. The sophomore guard from Queens, NY is averaging 14.4 ppg, but shoots 50 percent from beyond the arc. Lamb shoots with extreme consistency, and if he gets a sliver of space, expect him to have the green light.
His effective field-goal percentage is 57.7, good for second on the team only to Anthony Davis, who takes most of his shots from inside the paint. If Verdell Jones can’t keep up defensively – Lamb will be run off screens all day – he could be the difference in the game.
With an assist-turnover ratio of 2-4, Lamb has proven not to be an excellent playmaker which bodes well for IU’s aggressive defense.
Lamb is quick, athletic and tough defensively. He would likely be guarded by IU’s standout defender Victor Oladipo if not for the Wildcats other wing…
Kentucky | Michael Kidd-Gilchrest
Being one of Kentucky’s highly touted freshman, Kidd-Gilchrist doesn’t have a huge body of work to analyze. Saying that, he has looked overly impressive so far this year, especially in the big games and crucial situations: 12 points and nine rebounds against Kansas and 17 points and 11 rebounds last week against North Carolina.
On paper the numbers look good, on the floor, Kidd-Gilchrist looks even better. He is a 6-7 wing with strength that has proven he can play at a high level for nearly an entire game.
Kidd-Gilchrist has been said to be a hardworking kid with outstanding reviews in regards to his character and desire. This was on display when he took over the spotlight against UNC, a game that often had 10 NBA players on the court at once.
The New Jersey native is outstanding defensively, showing early that he has the ability to defend 1-5 on any given night. His seven-foot wingspan is sure to shrink the passing lanes for IU. To make it simple, Harrison Barnes – currently a consensus top three pick in the upcoming NBA Draft – was largely irrelevant when matched up with Kidd-Gilchrist in the second half.
Only eight games into his freshman year, many believe MKG will be the abject steal of next summer’s NBA Draft top 10.
Indiana | Christian Watford
How quickly we forget that Christian Watford played one of his best career games last year against Kentucky. While holding UK’s best player, Terrance Jones to just 3-11 shooting, Watford scored 19 points and pulled down nine rebounds.
Watford’s numbers may be down this year – 10.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg, .429 FG % – but his impact hasn’t been, and can’t be if the Hoosiers are to stand a chance.
If Watford can play efficiently within his game – knocking down midrange jump shots and an occasional three – he will be able to draw some of Kentucky’s size out of the paint and open it up for Oladipo and Sheehey to create inside, not to mention give Cody Zeller more room to work with against Anthony Davis.
Indiana | Will Sheehey, Derek Elston
To be blunt, efficient bench play is fundamental to a Hoosier victory. Tom Crean’s starting five can’t play the whole game, and at times, Sheehey (11.8 ppg, 3.1 rpg) and Elston (6.1 ppg, 3,1 rpg) have been more effective than Watford and Jones, so consider these two starters off the bench today.
There is a growing sentiment around Bloomington that Will Sheehey has earned a spot in the starting lineup, especially today. Despite, Sheehey has relished in his role off the bench, providing a spark offensively and a strong body to crash the boards.
Don’t be surprised if Sheehey doesn’t get the start, but you should be if he doesn’t finish.
Sheehey needs to put the ball in the hoop, but like Watford, he needs to play within his game. When he has, the Hoosiers have flourished.
Like Sheehey, Elston has been constant energy off the bench. Cody Zeller won’t be able to man-down the paint for the entire game, which puts more pressure on Elston to come in and do the things he’s capable of while Zeller rests.
Advanced Scouting Report | Kentucky will win if…
Kentucky is the No. 1 team in the country. It’s obvious they are decent at basketball. While the Wildcats lead the nation in blocked shots and FG% defense, the key to their dominance is their ability to break the game open with big momentum plays.
Two years ago, the last time Kentucky came to Bloomington, the Hoosiers led the Wildcats 48-47 about three minutes into the second half. Three missed shots and three turnovers later – less than five minutes gametime – Kentucky had rattled off 18 consecutive points.
Game over.
Last season IU took a slightly more experienced team to Lexington. This game was undecided until about seven minutes were left on the clock. Suprisingly, the Hoosiers led 57-56. 30 more points were scoring in the game, 25 of which by Kentucky.
Ballgame.
Advanced Scouting Report | Indiana will win if…
Ceding the disparity of talent in Kentucky’s favor, the Wildcats have had a history of not showing up on the road under John Calipari. Last year’s team had head-turning losses at Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Arkansas, in other words, the bottom of the SEC.
By no means is this the same Kentucky team. They have a lineup stocked full of NBA talent.
But, by no means are the courts of Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Arkansas Assembly Hall.
A stupefying amount of talent? Yes. Any experience on the road. None.
While future studs on your fantasy basketball teams, these Kentucky freshman are young and vulnerable to a rowdy, electric and desperate atmosphere.
“There are a lot of different ways to lose to Kentucky,” Tom Crean said. “We’ve got to make sure that we try to eliminate as many of those as possible. There are a few things that we have to do. And we’ve got to make sure that we do them.”
Crean knows he is on the wrong side of the talent disparity. But he also knows what the Hoosiers have to do to give themselves a chance.
The game needs to run through Jordan Hulls, and the game plan has to be designed to get Hulls to the free throw line. When was the last time Hulls missed a free throw? I left it out so you’d have to think about it.
Don’t hurt yourself; just know these are free points.
If the Hoosiers can hang with Kentucky on the boards, get to the free throw line and shut down the big plays, IU will have a chance to win the game in the end.
But all of that will be irrelevant if they play out of their game and take bad shots.
Both teams feed off of turning turnovers into transition points. The team that takes the least amount of bad shots will get to 9-0. For the Hoosiers to do so, they can’t surprise each other with a forced shot or a heat-check. They need to play as one, together.
And with that, all it takes is one to erase 28-66.
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