The lockout is a thing of the past, and the upcoming 66-game season will not have a shortage of storylines. Will Chris Paul make the Clippers the best team in Hollywood? Will Dwight Howard land in NJ/Brooklyn or the “other” L.A. team? Will LeBron lead the Heat to the first of many predicted championships? Will the Mavericks repeat?
These are some of the many questions as we enter the 2011-12 NBA season, and there will no doubt be more that arise. Here are my predictions for the upcoming season.
Western Conference Playoffs
- Oklahoma City Thunder (too soon?)
- Dallas Mavericks (VC+Odom=repeat?)
- Los Angeles Clippers (best team in L.A.?)
- Los Angeles Lakers (second best team in L.A.?)
- San Antonio Spurs (too old?)
- Memphis Grizzlies (good, not great, young team.)
- Portland Trailblazers (Brandon Roy and Greg Oden who?)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (No, that’s not a typo.)
Western Conference Finals: Thunder vs. Mavericks
Who wins? Thunder in 7.
Eastern Conference Playoffs
- Miami Heat (Big 3. ‘Nuff said)
- Chicago Bulls (is Rip Hamilton the answer?)
- New York Knicks (who’s their starting point guard?)
- Indiana Pacers (There’s a reason David West chose Indy over Boston)
- Boston Celtics (Father time finally catches up?)
- Philadelphia 76ers (Good team, no superstar)
- Atlanta Hawks (Overrated, details to come)
- Orlando Magic (Dwight Howard?)
Eastern Conference Finals: Heat vs. Knicks
Who wins? Heat in 6.
NBA Finals: Thunder vs. Heat
Who wins? Heat in 6.
Finals MVP: LeBron James, Miami Heat.
Third time will be the charm for LeBron. He’s not going to let his team down in the finals again. Dwayne Wade won’t let him.
Rookie of the year: Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers.
Right now Irving is serving as the backup to Ramon Sessions. Who? Exactly. Irving, or as I call him Chris Paul Jr., will no doubt become the starter within the first 20 games of the season, and I expect him to average close to 15 points and six assists with little to no help from his teammates. Irving is very quick and can become a solid defender who can steal the ball from the best of them.
League MVP: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder.
Not much needs to be said about Durant’s abilities. He averaged nearly 28 points per game and his THE guy on the Thunder. Durant will take all the big shots, and they will be given to him. Russell Westbrook needs to check himself, before he wrecks himself (and the team’s chemistry).
Defensive Player of the Year: Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic.
The only person who can defeat Chuck Norris is Chuck Norris. The only person who can defeat Dwight Howard is Dwight Howard. I don’t care if he’s in Orlando, L.A., NJ/Brooklyn, he averaged 14.1 rebounds/game and 2.4 blocks/game last season, and has shown to be able to consistently shut down opposing centers. Howard is the clear cut number one defender in the league, although I’d argue that it wouldn’t be as easy if guys like Greg Oden and Yao Ming could stay healthy or if KG or Ben Wallace could go back in time about ten years.
Coach of the Year: Rick Adelman, Minnesota Timberwolves.
I have the Timberwolves as the eight seed in the West, and it will be largely in part to their well-traveled coach. Adelman has coached some great Portland and Sacramento teams and a good Houston team, and I think he can coach up this young Timberwolves team that includes three #2 overall picks (Darko Milicic, Derrick Williams, Michael Beasley), a #4 (Wes Johnson), two #5’s (Kevin Love, Ricky Rubio), and a #6 (Martell Webster). Although Webster and Milicic have not panned out so far and Rubio and Williams are rookies, the T-wolves have a lot of length and talent, and I think under Adelman’s tutelage they can become a competitive team in the West.
Sixth Man of the Year: Jamal Crawford, Portland Trailblazers.
Crawford is the ultimate sixth man. He can score with the best of ‘em, but can’t defend the rest of ‘em. He won the award back in the ’09-‘10 season while with the Atlanta Hawks, averaging 18 points a game and averaging 31 minutes off the bench. Like I said before, Crawford can score, and he will be expected to do a lot of that as the first guy off the Bench in Portland, who is devoid of their greatest offensive weapon, Brandon Roy, who was forced to retire due to chronic knee issues.
Executive of the Year: Neil Olshey, Los Angeles Clippers.
Olshey is no doubt the top candidate for Executive of the year. He orchestrated the trade for all-star point guard Chris Paul, although it took a couple of attempts, and was able to successfully resign emerging center DeAndre Jordan. Olshey also managed to convince former Maverick Caron Butler to join the Clippers squad claimed veteran guard Chauncey Billups off of amnesty waivers. He has also made a couple of low key moves bringing in veteran big man Reggie Evans and electing to hold on to point guard Mo Williams, who’s future seemed a bit murky with the addition of Paul and Billups and a young Eric Bledsoe chomping at the bit. Williams, who averaged nearly 18 points per game with LeBron James in Cleveland in ’08, will likely be the first or second guy off the bench for this team with Billups starting at the two spot.
Most Improved Player: Evan Turner, Philadelphia 76ers.
Turner was the 2nd overall pick in the 2010 NBA draft, and has at times drawn comparisons to the great Kobe Bryant. As a rookie his playing time fluctuated and at times he was hesitant to shoot, and averaged less than three field goals made per game. Although in the 76ers two preseason games Turner has come of the bench, backing up second year guard Jodie Meeks, Turner is the more skilled player and should eventually surpass Meeks. I expect Turner to average closer to 30 minutes a game and average about 12 or 13 points a game, a big step up from the 7.2 he had as a rookie, but I also expect him to be more aggressive a look for his shot a little more, something we saw a lot more of in the shortened preseason.
Fantasy Player of the Year: LeBron James, Miami Heat.
LeBron should be the consensus #1 pick in all fantasy drafts, no if’s an’s or but’s about it. Yes, you could argue that Kevin Durant will score more points and shoot better percentages than him, but LeBron will get you 27-7-7 on a nightly basis along with two steals and a block. He’s not a great free throw shooter but he gets to the line a lot and he’ll also hit close to a hundred threes.
Best Offseason Acquisition: Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers.
The Clippers are going to be the greatest show on hardwood this season, and it will be largely in part to CP3. Paul will fit in perfectly in L.A. and has a plethora of highflying weapons at his disposal in Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, and will look to lead the Clippers to the playoffs for only the seventh time in their 40-plus year franchise history.
Worst Offseason Acquisition: Kwame Brown, Golden State Warriors.
It seems incredible that Kwame Brown is still only 29 years old after being selected first overall in the 2001 draft by the Wizards and the great Michael Jordan, but that’s what happens when you enter the NBA draft as a 19 year old kid rather than going to college. Brown’s career has been marred by immaturity and being out of shape, but he’s somehow been awarded a one-year $7 million deal by the Golden State Warriors. I understand they needed some big man depth, but $7 million for a guy with career averages of 6.8 points per game and 5.6 rebounds? Sorry, but I’m not buying it.
Worst Record: Toronto Raptors.
The Raptors are awful. You know you’re bad when your free agent acquisitions consist of veteran outcasts such as Anthony Carter, Rasual Butler, and Jamaal Magloire. Although they do bring some much needed leadership, they’ll mostly be bringing the young players water on the bench. They’ve got some good young talent in Andrea Bargnani, Ed Davis, and DeMar DeRozan, but this team is going no where fast. It’s going to be another long season in Canada.
Most Overrated Team: Atlanta Hawks.
I’ve never been a fan of this Atlanta Hawks team. Jeff Teague had some impressive moments as a starter in the playoffs, but has yet to prove he can be a consistent starter. Kirk Hinrich can shoot, but is a defensive liability. Joe Johnson is a former all-star, but regressed significantly last season and could be past his prime. Josh Smith is an effective defender and athletic on offense, but at times has proven to be more trouble than he’s worth. Al Horford is the only stable and consistent presence on the roster, and you always know he’s going to give you 110%. I like the players, I just don’t like how any of them fit together, and I think if they struggle this year some changes will definitely need to be made.
Most Underrated Team: Indiana Pacers.
The Pacers remind me a lot of the Memphis Grizzlies last season. They’ve got an emerging point guard and center in Darren Collison and Roy Hibbert, an unproven yet athletic and high potential guard in Paul George, a go-to-guy and playmaker in Danny Granger, and veteran forward David West, whom they signed to a two-year deal in the off-season. Tyler Hansbrough, who I think is the Tim Tebow of the NBA, with move back into a sixth-man, high energy off the bench role, and George Hill will give them a veteran ball handler and scorer off the bench. I think the Pacers have what it takes to compete with some of the better teams in the East, and wouldn’t be surprised if they made some noise in the playoffs this year.
Most Overrated Player: Andrew Bynum, Los Angeles Lakers.
You can bring a horse to water, but you can’t make him drink. You can give Andrew Bynum Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, but you can’t make him a great basketball player. Don’t get me wrong Andrew Bynum is a good, solid NBA center, but he plays in an era with very few dominant big men. Bynum has always shown strides of improvement in his low post game, but he’s not aggressive, unless you consider going after the four foot tall J.J. Barea aggressive. Bynum will never be more than a 15 point and 10 rebound per game center, which for todays standards isn’t aweful, but let’s stop comparing him to Shaq, because in my opinion Bynum doesn’t even deserve to shine Shaq’s shoes.
Most Underrated Player: Kris Kardashian Humphries, New Jersey Nets.
Recently Forbes issued a poll that had Humphries listed as the most hated player in the NBA, above guys like LeBron James and Metta World Peace. It’s become apparent that his 72-day marriage to Kim Kardashian has caused people to overlook the fact that he’s actually a good basketball player. He had 29 double-doubles in 2010 and averaged ten points and 10.4 rebounds in what became a career year for the eight-year veteran. Humphries was rewarded by the Nets with a much needed 1-year $8 million deal, especially after he spent $2 million on Kim’s wedding ring.
Number One Draft Pick: Anthony Davis, University of Kentucky.
A lot of this years draft will depend on what team ends up with the first pick. The teams I feel will likely be in the running are the Raptors, Cavaliers, Bobcats, and Kings. If I were a team I’d find it very difficult to not select Anthony Davis out of Kentucky. The athletic big man has shown glimmers of dominance, but also at times has proven to be raw and inconsistent. Harrison Barnes out of North Carolina is a close number two, and you’ve got to think how interesting it would be if the Bobcats end up with the first pick, and Michael Jordan is presented with the opportunity to select Barnes with the first overall pick? Just sayin’.
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