story by Kevin Schlott

Last week, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase kicked off at Chicagoland Speedway. As many championship contenders tried to separate themselves from the rest of the field, others found themselves running out of gas on the final laps.

Only nine races remain as NASCAR’s finest head to Loudon, New Hampshire for some flat track, long turn racing. Will Jimmie Johnson make his move now and win a sixth Sprint Cup Championship? Or will a new champion emerge? Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch have had more wins, and are in a good position to take Johnson’s throne.

New Hampshire Motor Speedway is fast and has long, slightly-banked straightaways with lengthy turns. Drivers entering the turns will find it difficult to roll through the center corners, with the car wanting to push to the right. On exits of turns two and four, drivers should get to the gas sooner than they want, which may cause them to get sideways or (loose).

Passing is a struggle because there aren’t many opportunities. We could see some beaten up race cars as a result. Strategy will come into play with many crew chiefs, especially for the final two pit stops. For example, teams might gamble with the two tire option for track position, instead of four.

The July race was dominated by Stewart Haas Racing. Ryan Newman won the pole and won the race.  The US Army #39 team opted to gamble and stay out and save fuel while others headed to pit road, a gamble that paid off. In this September race, we should expect the same. Look for Ryan Newman and Tony Stewart to dominate and lead a lot of laps. Stewart has an average finish of 9.4 in his last five races at New Hampshire[i]. Additionally, Stewart has momentum from last week’s win and he’ll be going for two in a row and will be trying to win his third championship.

Other drivers to keep an eye out for are Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch and Jimmie Johnson. These three are phenomenal flat track drivers. Hamlin has been quiet this year but made it into the Chase. He has an average finish of 7.2 in his last five races at New Hampshire.[ii] Kurt Busch, who always seems to be there when it counts, is looking for a win after a good run last week. Busch knows he has a good chance at New Hampshire: “We have to capitalize on a good race track for us, this is a good track for us and we need a good points day.”[iii]  he said about NHMS.

Busch has an average finish of 7.0 and should be there in the end if he avoids continuing the feud with Jimmie Johnson. Of the remaining chase drivers Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch are tied with three wins at New Hampshire[iv]. Johnson has an average finish of 8.8 with a win and four top ten finishes.[v] We can’t really rule out the five time champion, especially in the chase.

The racing is great at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, especially with the long corners and limited room for passing. Different types of strategies will play out during the course of the race. Unfortunately, we probably are going to see another fuel mileage race. Although fuel mile strategy is exciting to some extent, it’s not good for the sport as a business. NASCAR probably doesn’t want their top drivers with major sponsorships running out of gas on the last laps of the race only to finish a lap down in the middle to late twenty positions. However, this strategy might win out. So, we will see who will be able to save the most gas on the last green flag run in victory lane on Sunday afternoon.